Housing Expected to Flatten Out From Record Levels in 2005 While Jobs and Economy Grow

October 29, 2004 – Activity in the nation’s booming housing industry should hold up at fairly robust levels into 2005, according to the consensus of economists participating in the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) Construction Forecast Conference at the National Housing Center in Washington, D.C.

Panelists were largely optimistic about prospects for the residential construction industry, economic growth, job growth and inflation as the Federal Reserve continues to gradually push up interest rates and the fiscal stimulus of the Bush Administration’s tax cuts begins to fade.

High oil prices were identified as the wildcard in the scenario. While hard to predict, energy costs were expected to subside next year from today’s record levels after taking a small bite out of economic output and consumer confidence in the short term.

“The housing market has been nothing short of phenomenal, especially anything that smacks of homeownership,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders. But the nation’s housing market is in the process of “reaching its limits” and “topping out.”

With activity “flattening in 2005,” Seiders is forecasting a decline in housing starts next year of about 4.2 percent to 1.85 million units, down from the 1.935 million starts projected for this year. Sales of new single-family homes are forecast to drop 5.2 percent from a record of more than 1.16 million this year to about 1.1 million.

Single-family production is poised to set another record this year, Seiders said, and the fundamentals of the market will remain good in 2005 even though some households may have moved up their home-buying plans from next year to this year when they saw mortgage interest rates starting to rise. With inventories lean and demand continuing to ride high, the single-family market “hasn’t sewn the seeds of its own destruction,” he said.

Multifamily production continues at an annual pace in the 340,000-unit range, he said, even though demand in this sector has been softened by the allure of homeownership for renter households. Rental vacancies were down a bit in the third quarter, he noted, but remained near record levels, and condominiums have been on an upswing.

Looking at household formations and immigration growth, he gauged demand for single-family and multifamily housing at an annual average of 1.8 million units through 2013.

Along with his co-panelists, Michael Moran, chief economist of Daiwa Securities America, said that rising interest rates shouldn’t put much of a squeeze on consumers, he said, because “most of the debt of the household sector is fixed-rate so you don’t see it rolling into higher interest rates as the Fed tightens.”

NAHB is forecasting that fixed-rate mortgages will average 6.5 percent in 2005, up from 5.9 percent this year, which would leave the cost of home financing at relatively affordable levels.

—Inman News

Real estate could face government scrutiny for payoffs
Steering is at heart of government’s investigation of insurance companies.

At the center of the expanding probe of the insurance industry by New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer and now California Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi is the issue of steering business from brokers to insurance companies for financial gains.

The real estate connection may not be too far off.

The investigation may have already led to the doorsteps of insurance brokers who steer homeowners insurance business to specific insurance companies in exchange for fees. California commissioner John Garamendi implied he would take action on at least one insurance broker and that he would propose new regulations that would require insurance brokers to disclose all compensation from insurance companies and explicitly prohibit brokers from steering business to insurers in exchange for payoffs.

If these types of investigations of payoffs and fees deepen, the real estate angle could be broader than homeowners insurance. The widening scope of regulators’ concern could easily find government investigators at the doorstep of the real estate industry. Mortgage brokers often steer business to particular lenders in exchange for compensation. While the compensation should be disclosed, it is often fuzzy and still represents payment for directing business to particular lenders.

Other real estate business dealings also could be scrutinized, including affiliated business relationships, capture-rate programs and bundling—a practice in which lenders, real estate brokers, franchises and title companies wrap products together and exchange fees. In some cases, the consumer is informed of these relationships, but often it is disclosed in fine print, well hidden or poorly explained.

While the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act regulates industry kickbacks and payoffs, in the last decade the industry has pushed the limits of the law in order to capture revenues from affiliated businesses with lending and title companies.

While RESPA promises to prohibit kickbacks in exchange for referrals of home buyers and sellers to services providers, there are many loopholes and it is one of the most tightly wound laws in real estate. RESPA’s complexity may partially explain why there are so many varied interpretations.

But complexity isn’t the whole story. RESPA also is the subject of heated debate because so much money is at stake in the numerous affiliated business arrangements that legitimize and legalize profitable relationships between brokers, lenders, title officers and other people who profit from the real estate transaction.

Many reputable brokers and sales associates insist that the industry is in full compliance with every tiny detail of RESPA and that absolutely no one is breaking the law. But others say compliance is at best spotty due to the widespread ignorance, misinterpretation, shady dealings and outright law breaking, according to a Inman News special report on RESPA released last year. 

The government’s inability to enforce RESPA clouds the issue by making it difficult to assess the degree of compliance. The debate over the law and kickbacks generally centers on the home buyer and seller, though most are unaware of the law and its protections. Many brokers and agents rationalize actions to steer business based on the consumers’ desire for one-stop shopping, which by definition means affiliated business arrangements and an exchange of fees.

Critics argue that consumers pay more for these bundled services and are not properly informed of the business relationships.<

—Inman News